| Group A | Group B | Group C | |||
| 1 | Mexico | 1 | Honduras | 1 | Panama |
| 2 | Costa Rica | 2 | Jamaica | 2 | United States |
| 3 | El Salvador | 3 | Guatemala | 3 | Canada |
| 4 | Cuba | 4 | Grenada | 4 | Guadeloupe |
| Knockout Stage | |||||
| A2 | Costa Rica | ||||
| B2 | Jamaica | A2 | Costa Rica | ||
| A1 | Mexico | ||||
| A1 | Mexico | A1 | Mexico | ||
| C3 | Canada | ||||
| Champions: Mexico | |||||
| B1 | Honduras | ||||
| C2 | United States | C2 | United States | ||
| C2 | United States | ||||
| C1 | Panama | C1 | Panama | ||
| B3 | Guatemala | ||||
What's all this then?
As an experiment, I've decided to post daily predictions of how the Gold Cup's going to turn out after each day of matches. Now that each group has one game in, it seems like a great time to start.
The purpose isn't to show how clever I am; indeed, the opposite will probably happen. I'm just interested to see how my predictions evolve over the course of the tournament. At this stage, a third of the way through the group stage, most of us probably think we have a decent handle on most of these teams. Well, I want to find out. So here's my prediction for today, complete and unedited through the end of the tournament. Then we'll see if anything changes tomorrow.
Notes on predictions for June 12: Thanks, Panama. Now group C has gone completely squirrelly. If Guadeloupe had beaten Canada (which they easily could have), my predictions for that group would all be out the window. Instead, Panama got a little lucky to beat the Americans, Canada got really lucky to beat a country that isn't even a country, and that group could got a hundred different directions. Canada could, conceivably, win it (beat Panama by two or more and the Americans fail to beat Guadeloupe). So could Panama (beat or draw Canada, Americans fail to beat Guadeloupe). So could the Americans (Panama fails to beat Canada and the Americans beat Guadeloupe). Only the not-a-countries are out of it, but even they could still sneak into the knockout stages. Canada could finish anywhere from first to fourth.
Hopefully the tame, uninspired Canada we saw against Guadeloupe isn't the real deal. But even if Canada comes out firing on all cylinders, I don't think we'll get enough points to win the tie-breaker. In fact, I don't think we'll even win the game: I think we'll draw, giving Panama seven points and a win in the group.
If Panama wins the group, they'd have to beat either A3 or B3 (my current prediction: Guatemala, which might be a pretty interesting game actually) then the second-place team in group B (the United States). I confidently predict the United States will win the knockout round rematch, just because the Americans were so lucky not to win the round robin game even playing fairly uninspired soccer.
Canada, meanwhile, would play in the quarter-final against Mexico. Thanks for coming out. We have some lovely parting gifts for you.